Tweetminster blog

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Tweetminster Daily - April 19 2010

The Tweetminster Daily is a summary of the day’s top political stories and analysis around UK Politics. The summary isn’t curated or editorially controlled, but entirely built using data around the most shared and clicked on links on Twitter.

Issue 45 - 19/04/2010 - 18:00

Posted at Mon, Apr 19th 2010, 18:13

Tweetminster Predicts - the Lib Dem surge is reflected on Twitter too

Once again, we’re publishing the updated figures of our experiment in predictive modelling that aims to study the correlation between word-of-mouth and election results.

There are now 402 constituencies mentioned on Twitter (up 13 from 389). The latest top-line figures are CON 33% (-2) LAB 32% (nc) LDEM 28% (+5) Others 7% (-3).

The Liberal Democrat surge is therefore also reflected within buzz on Twitter. The figures also show how the change is mainly focussed around a shift in support from the Conservatives and from other parties to the Liberal Democrats.

Support for Labour seems to be less dented. In fact, if we look at constituency-level predictions (where there are still 367 constituencies on Twitter with at least one candidate from the three main parties), Labour drops to 142 forecast seats out of the 367 analysed (from 151), while the Conservatives fall to 131 seats (from 148). The Liberal Democrats surge to 83 (from 55). While other parties drop to 11 seats (from 13). 

While we are as always keen to emphasise that ours is an experiment in predictive modelling and not a poll, it’s worth highlighting how our figures have consistently suggested that the Liberal Democrats would score higher than the polls were suggesting, and specifically would perform well in many CON-LDEM contested seats in the South West. This week’s figures further emphasise these trends.

In conclusion, one interesting angle of interpretation of the Leaders’ Debate and recent polls is the impact of television when seen in the context of the mechanisms of “attention” - last week, the Liberal Democrats had the same attention that is usually reserved to the two main parties. Such attention, coupled with the media and public attention that followed, have - of course on a far larger scale (the debate was watched by 10 million people, while just over 36,000 people tweeted about it) - dynamics and implications not too dissimilar from “mentions” and “word-of-mouth” on social media - the impact that all this will have on the final result will make the next few weeks even more fascinating.  

We have also updated the paper of the study, and will update the site on Monday morning.   

Posted at Sun, Apr 18th 2010, 17:15

The most tweeted issue? Immigration

Last night we published a post with all the top-line figures and trends around the Leaders’ Debate. While, earlier today Google published some interesting findings on the most searched for terms during the debate.

We thought it would be of interest to add to the mix a list of the most mentioned topics in last night’s tweets:

  1. Immigration
  2. Reform
  3. Education
  4. Trident
  5. China
  6. Afghanistan
  7. Money
  8. Troops
  9. Manifesto
  10. NHS
  11. Crime
  12. Police
  13. Taxes
  14. War
  15. Soldiers
  16. Participation

Posted at Fri, Apr 16th 2010, 12:23

The Leaders' Debate

The first leaders’ debate was the most tweeted event around UK politics, with more than triple the activity around Nick Griffin’s appearance at Question Time.

Here are the top-line figures:

Total tweets: 184,396
Average frequency 29.06 tweets per second
Total tweeters: 36,483
Peak: 41.05 tweets/second

Sentiment scores: Clegg: 3.631, Cameron: 3.033, Brown: 3.006 (you can read more about how our sentiment analysis works here)

Nick Clegg was also the most tweeted of the three leaders, followed by Cameron and then Brown. 

The most frequent terms used by the three leaders:

Brown: People, Health, Economy, Police
Cameron: People, Money, Country, Care
Clegg: People, System, Tax, Money 

Looking at the metrics together, Nick Clegg clearly emerges as the ‘winner’, while Brown and Cameron score fairly similarly, yet their scores should be analysed within the context of expectations. Not all 0-0 draws are the same.

Finally, an apology - during the debate our site suffered a period of downtime - we had more than 10 times the traffic we had planned for. The site is gradually resuming normally and we will enhance our set-up in the next couple of days. Next we know what to expect.

Posted at Fri, Apr 16th 2010, 00:24

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