Tweetminster Predicts - a hung parliament

Today we’re releasing the final set of ‘Tweetminster Predicts’ figures, our experiment in predictive modelling that studies the correlation between buzz on Twitter and election results. The model looks at the most mentioned candidate in each of the constituencies represented on Twitter (full details of the methodology are below).

Our latest figures, based on the 433 constituencies now mentioned on Twitter, don’t show significant changes since last week, with topline figures - CON 35% (nc) LAB 30% (nc) LDEM 27% (+1).
With a UNS, these figures would point to a hung parliament with Labour 45 seats short of a majority. 

When we launched our study last month, we outlined several trends in the data, including:

  • The Liberal Democrats performing better than polls were showing (they were below 20% then), especially strong in the South West in LibCon marginals
  • A decline in SNP support when compared to recent polls and forecasts
  • No significant shifts towards Plaid Cymru
  • A strong Conservative performance in the East Midlands. 

In addition to confirming these trends, the latest set of data also points to:

  • Growing support for the Conservatives in Wales
  • The high likelihood of Caroline Lucas winning in Brighton Pavilion
  • Esther Rantzen winning in Luton South
  • While as expected several Labour seats will swing to the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, the data suggests that a few will swing the other way too. 

This week we are also releasing predictions for 266 constituencies around which significant buzz has been generated over the past month:

We have also updated the paper of the study:

Tweetminster Predicts

Following the election we will publish the complete findings of the study. The final set of predictions will also be uploaded to our site shortly.

Posted at Wed, May 5th 2010, 08:00