Tweetminster Predicts - a good week for the Conservatives

Today we publish the latest figures of our experiment in predictive modelling, which aims to study the correlation between buzz (mentions) around candidates on Twtter and election results.

There are now over 600 candidates and 427 constituencies mentioned on Twitter.

This weeks top-line figures: CON 35% (+2), LAB 30% (-2) LDEM 26% (-2) Others 9% (+2)

If these figures were translated into seats with a UNS they would point to a hung parliament with Labour short of 44 seats.

Our constituency level predictions (for the 367 seats where there is at least one candidate from three main parties on Twitter) also point to a swing towards the Conservatives, and a drop in both Labour and the Liberal Democrats from last week: CON: 138 LAB 138 LDEM: 79 Others: 12

Overall the figures show a shift in support from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. They also register a higher top-line figure for other parties. The latter trend is mainly due to a growth in activity around candidates in Scotland and Northern Ireland. While the swing to the Conservatives is reflective of a slight decline in both overall buzz for the Liberal Democrats and around Labour candidates especially in several London constituencies.

This week, we also updated the listing for the most ‘influential candidates’ on Twitter (this is based on a ratio between activity & mentions) - the top-10 now reads:

  1. Nick Clegg
  2. Tom Watson
  3. Eric Pickles
  4. David Miliband
  5. William Hague
  6. Vince Cable
  7. Douglas Alexander
  8. Jeremy Hunt
  9. Ed Balls
  10. Dr. Evan Harris 

We’ve updated the Tweetminster Predicts paper¬†with the latest figures, and will update the site tomorrow.

Posted at Sun, Apr 25th 2010, 17:00

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