Tweetminster Predicts - the trends are in the detail.

Today we’re publishing a third update in the figures of our experiment in predictive modelling, which aims to study the correlation between word-of-mouth and election results.

The most important shift this week is in the number of constituencies mentioned on Twitter. There are in fact now 389 (+5) constituencies mentioned on Twitter.

The latest topline prediction is CON 35 (-1) LAB 32 (-1), LDEM 23 (+1) Others 10 (+1). So, not much change in the top-line this week, other than our data continuing to suggest the Liberal Democrats will perform better than most polls currently suggest.

The more interesting trends are in the constituency level predictions - there are now 367 constituencies with at least one candidate from the three largest parties on Twitter (up from 324 since we started the experiment), and within many of these seats the trend is swinging positively for the Conservatives - the constituency level predictions for these 367 seats are: CON: 148, LAB: 151, LDEM: 55, Others: 13 - with the top-line prediction still pointing to a hung parliament, yet with Labour now short of 29 seats (from last week’s short of 26 seats).

We’ve updated the study’s paper, and will be updating the site tomorrow morning.

Posted at Sun, Apr 11th 2010, 17:00

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