Tweetminster Predicts points to a hung parliament

Last week we launched Tweetminster Predicts, an experiment in predictive modelling that will compare mentions on Twitter with election results. The aim of the experiment is to study the correlation between word-of-mouth (online buzz around candidates) and election results. In each constituency represented on Twitter we count the most mentioned candidate in each of the analysed constituencies - giving a first past the post prediction to the candidate with the most mentions.

As outlined in the study’s methodology, during the course of the campaign we will be releasing updated figures showing variations in the data and to take into accounts further constituencies mentioned on Twitter and new candidates that sign up to Twitter during the course of the campaign.

Today we’re releasing the first of these updates: 

Number of constituencies mentioned & represented on Twitter (and variations since March 26th) - 384 (+8)

Predicted top-line national party breakdown and variation:
CON 36% (+2) LAB 33% (-2) LDEM 22% (nc) Others 9% (nc). 
If these figures were repeated at the General Election they would lead to a hung parliament with Labour short of 26 seats.

Number of constituencies with more than one candidate represented on Twitter: 324 (nc)

Constituency-level predictions for these 324 seats: CON: 126 seats (+5), LAB: 135 (-3), LDEM 54 (-1), Others 9 (-1)

The main variations, although minor, have mostly been from Labour to the Conservatives. The Lib Dems have ‘lost’ a seat since our previous prediction, yet their topline figure remains unchanged and they’re trending positively. 

Constituencies which are displaying interesting trends this week include: Hampstead & Kilburn, Chippenham, Morley and Outwood, Glasgow Central, Mid-Dorset & North Poole, Manchester Withington, Stourbridge, Sutton & Cheam, Westmorland & Londsdale, Brentford & Isleworth, Luton South and Brighton Kemptown. 

We have also updated the Tweetminster Predicts paper outlining the study. Our website will be updated on Tuesday morning.

Posted at Mon, Apr 5th 2010, 17:45

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