The electionista Guide to the US Election

Here is electionista’s brief guide to the US presidential election.

Over 100 million Americans will vote. Polls close at different times across the country with Kentucky and Indiana the first to close at 2300 GMT and Alaska the last at 0500 GMT (on Wednesday).

Poll closing times in key states:

Virgina 0000 GMT

North Carolina 0030 GMT

Ohio 0030 GMT 

Florida 0100 GMT 

New Hampshire 0100 GMT 

Pennsylvania 0100 GMT

Colorado 0200 GMT 

Wisconsin 0200 GMT

Iowa 0300 GMT 

Nevada 0300 GMT 

Each state is called some time after the polls close, and depending on how close the results are, a winning candidate is expected to emerge between 0300 and 0700 GMT (on Wednesday).

Polls.

There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs, with at least 270 needed to win.

Average of national polls: 

TPM: Obama 48.9%, Romney 47.9% 

RealClearPolitics: Obama 48.8%, Romney 48.1%

Averages in key swing states (RCP data):

Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Obama: +0.3

North Carolina (15) - Romney: +3

Ohio (18) - Obama: +2.8

Florida (29) - Romney: +1.8 

New Hampshire (4) - Obama: +2 

Pennsylvania (20) - Obama: +3.9

Colorado (9) - Obama: +0.6

Wisconsin (10) - Obama: +4.2

Iowa (6) - Obama: +3

Nevada (6) - Obama: +2.8

Based on these, the electoral college tally would be: Obama 303, Romney 235 

FiveThirtyEight forecasts in-line with these averages handing Obama 315.2, Romney 222.8; Obama chance of winning 92%, Romney chance of winning 8% 

Road to the White House - likely combinations.

There are 512 possible paths to the White House, yet these are the most likely combinations:

If Romney doesn’t win Ohio, he would need Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin AND Iowa or New Hampshire. If Romney wins Ohio, he would need Florida, Virginia and one other swing state. 

If Obama wins Florida, he would likely be past the needed 270 mark. If he doesn’t win Florida, the President would need Ohio AND Virginia or Wisconsin or Colorado or Iowa and New Hampshire.

These combinations visualised.

To follow the election and results.

Hashtag: #election2012

On electionista U.S. you can follow all the Tweets of media, key commentators, reporters across the country and from the campaigns.

@electionista will be tweeting results throughout the night.

If you want to follow the election in languages other than English, electionista is working with the BBC World Service on their coverage in Persian, Russian and Arabic.

Posted at Mon, Nov 5th 2012, 21:13
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A brief guide to elections in Georgia

On October 1, Georgia heads to the polls to elect a new parliament. Here is @electionista’s brief guide to following the election. 

Number of registered voters: 3,613,851 - the highest in 20 years.

The Georgian parliament has 150 members elected for a four-year term using a mixed system - 73 MPs are elected via a majoritarian system, 77 seats are allocated proportionately. There is a 5% threshold to enter parliament.

A new constitution - these will be the first parliamentary elections held in Georgia since the country adopted a new constitution which shifts significant executive powers from the President to the Prime Minister. A candidate for PM will be named by the party that wins the election, and the PM-designate will require the support of at least 76 MPs in order to form a government. More on the constitutional changes can be found here. These new provisions will go into effect following the presidential election in October 2013.

The election campaign has been marred with controversies, abuses in prisons and an investigation into links between opposition leaders and criminal organisations have hit both ruling party and opposition, reflecting a country divided between supporters of pro-western President Saakashvili and opposition billionaire Ivanishvili and the possibility of renewed links with Russia. 

You can find out more about Georgia’s voting system and parties here. 

Despite these divisions, the ruling United National Movement holds a double-digit lead in recent polls. 

Hashtags to follow the election on Twitter: #Georgia and #gvote - we will post more hashtags as they emerge on election day.

We will be posting main events and results on Twitter via @electionista and you can follow all the relevant Tweets from candidates and local media, and news on our Georgia page.  

Posted at Sun, Sep 30th 2012, 11:32
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