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Tweetminster Daily - April 26 2010
The Tweetminster Daily is a summary of the day’s top political stories and analysis around UK Politics. The summary isn’t curated or editorially controlled, but entirely built using data around the most shared and clicked on links on Twitter. Issue 47 - 26/04/2010 - 19:30 Tories’ warning on free schools Lib Dems stage fake ‘PC’ photos Guess who wears the trousers in casa Clegg? Tory lead cut to four in new poll Conservative party will allow nurseries to charge top-up fees
Posted at Mon, Apr 26th 2010, 19:58
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Tweetminster Predicts - a good week for the Conservatives
Today we publish the latest figures of our experiment in predictive modelling, which aims to study the correlation between buzz (mentions) around candidates on Twtter and election results.
There are now over 600 candidates and 427 constituencies mentioned on Twitter.
This weeks top-line figures: CON 35% (+2), LAB 30% (-2) LDEM 26% (-2) Others 9% (+2)
If these figures were translated into seats with a UNS they would point to a hung parliament with Labour short of 44 seats.
Our constituency level predictions (for the 367 seats where there is at least one candidate from three main parties on Twitter) also point to a swing towards the Conservatives, and a drop in both Labour and the Liberal Democrats from last week: CON: 138 LAB 138 LDEM: 79 Others: 12
Overall the figures show a shift in support from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives. They also register a higher top-line figure for other parties. The latter trend is mainly due to a growth in activity around candidates in Scotland and Northern Ireland. While the swing to the Conservatives is reflective of a slight decline in both overall buzz for the Liberal Democrats and around Labour candidates especially in several London constituencies.
This week, we also updated the listing for the most ‘influential candidates’ on Twitter (this is based on a ratio between activity & mentions) - the top-10 now reads:
- Nick Clegg
- Tom Watson
- Eric Pickles
- David Miliband
- William Hague
- Vince Cable
- Douglas Alexander
- Jeremy Hunt
- Ed Balls
- Dr. Evan Harris
We’ve updated the Tweetminster Predicts paper with the latest figures, and will update the site tomorrow.
Posted at Sun, Apr 25th 2010, 17:00
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Leaders' Debate Vol. 2
This week during there was a lower number of tweets and tweeters compared to the first leaders’ debate:
- Total number of tweets: 142,795 (-41,601)
- Average frequency: 26.6 tweets/second (-2.46)
- Peak: 33.18 tweets/sec. (-7.87)
- Number of Tweeters 28,790 (-7,693)
Our sentiment scores point to a draw showing: Cameron: 3.1 (-0.2 from starting score), Brown 3.1 (nc) Clegg 3.1 (nc). You can find out more about how we calculate sentiment here.
Most tweeted terms:
- Cameron
- Clegg
- Brown
- Immigration
- Work
- Policy
- Vote
- Parliament
- Green
- Energy
- Bank
- Tax
- Power
- Change
- Society
The following graph shows the average frequency of tweets per second during the course of the debate:
Posted at Thu, Apr 22nd 2010, 22:24
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Tweetminster Daily - April 20 2010
The Tweetminster Daily is a summary of the day’s top political stories and analysis around UK Politics. The summary isn’t curated or editorially controlled, but entirely built using data around the most shared and clicked on links on Twitter. Issue 46 - 20/04/2010 - 18:30 The ultimate fulfilment of the New Labour mission The wheels are coming off the Tory bicycle Bell Pottinger lobbying chief Peter Bingle pens fresh Tory campaign memo Nick Clegg’s rise could lock Murdoch and the media out of UK politics Vote Nick Clegg and that is what you’ll get, says Clegg
Posted at Tue, Apr 20th 2010, 18:45
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